このたび『苦渋の選択―対外政策変更に関する理論』（デイヴィッド・ウェルチ著、田所昌幸監訳、千倉書房、2016年2月刊行予定）の出版を記念して、特別シンポジウムを開催します。

冷戦が終わってからすでに四半世紀が経過し、日本だけではなくアメリカに対しても急速に勢力バランスを強化する中国、クリミア併合に見られるロシアの現状変更的態度、中東秩序の混乱に伴う移民の流出やISによるテロ攻撃などにみられるように、国際環境の構造は大きく姿を変えたように見えます。このような構造の変動に応じて、東アジアの主要国の対外政策にも、今後大きな変更があり得るでしょうか。またそうだとするとどのような変更が考えられるでしょうか。2008年にISA（国際政治学会）の国際安全保障分野の最優秀賞を受賞し、このたびその邦訳が出版されることになったウェルチ教授の著作で展開されている理論的枠組みを手がかりにしつつ、東アジアの国際政治で起こりうる変動について議論を深めます。

Symposium： Will There be Dramatic Foreign Policy Changes? Shift of Security Environments and Prospective Changes of Foreign Policy in East Asia

In commemoration of the Japanese publication of Kuju no Sentaku: Taigaiseisaku Henko ni Kansuru Riron [Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change], by David A. Welch(translated by Masayuki Tadokoro, Chikura Shobo, 2016)

With the passing of a quarter century since the end of the Cold War, it appears that the global security environments have undergone major structural changes such as a rapid shift in the balance of power toward China and away from Japan and even the United States, Russia's increasingly aggressive attitude as exemplified in its annexation of Crimea, the disorder in the Middle East resulting in the refugee crisis and terrorist attacks conducted by ISIS. Should we then anticipate dramatic changes in the foreign policy of major players in East Asia in accordance with such changes? If so, what types of change should we expect? We will explore these questions in light of the theory put forward by Prof. Welch in his award-winning volume originally published in 2005 by Princeton University Press, which is now newly available in Japanese.

Date: Wednesday, February 3, 6:30-9:00 pm
Place: Iwasaki Koyata Memorial Hall (B1), International House of Japan (5-11-16 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo)
Accsess
Keynote Speaker: David A. Welch (Professor, University of Waterloo)
Panelists: Yamamoto Yoshinobu (Professor, University of Niigata Prefecture), Hosoya Yuichi (Professor, Keio University)
Chair: Tadokoro Masayuki (Professor, Keio University)
Co-organized by: Shibusawa Eiichi Memorial Foundation, International House of Japan and Suntory Foundation
Languages: Japanese/English (with simultaneous interpretation)
Admission: Free (reservations required, Seating: 150)
Registration: Please send your name and affiliation to researchcenter**shibusawa.or.jp (please change ** to @)

David A. Welch (Professor, Political Science, University of Waterloo)
Prof. Welch serves as Centre for International Governance Innovation Chair of Global Security at the Balsillie School of International Affairs of the University of Waterloo. His 2005 book Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change (Princeton University Press) is the inaugural winner of the International Studies Association ISSS Book Award for the best book published in 2005 or 2006, and his 1993 book Justice and the Genesis of War (Cambridge University Press) is the winner of the 1994 Edgar S. Furniss Award for an Outstanding Contribution to National Security Studies. He is the author of Decisions, Decisions: The Art of Effective Decision-Making (Prometheus, 2001), and co-author of On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis (1st ed., Hill and Wang, 1989; 2nd ed., Noonday, 1990); Cuba on the Brink: Castro, The Missile Crisis, and the Soviet Collapse (Pantheon, 1993; 2nd ed., Rowman & Littlefield, 2002); The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Concise History (Oxford University Press, 2007); and Virtual JFK: Vietnam if Kennedy had Lived (Rowman & Littlefield, 2009). He is co-editor of Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (Frank Cass, 1998), and his articles have appeared in many journals including Asian Perspective, and Ethics and International Affairs. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1990.